If China sides with the junta
There are rumours saying that China is pressuring Northern Alliance group and trying to interfere in Myanmar’s internal affair.
First of all, I don’t want to believe that this letter is authentic. If there is a letter, there may be county level who want to appease the junta, but Chinese central government won’t do like that.
During the era of Daw Aung Suu Kyi, Myanmar and China had incredibly good relationship despite challenges we had in the past. We know that China made some investment to support NLD’s government as well. China thought Nobel Laurate Daw Aung San Suu Kyi might lean towards the West, but she was pragmatic and kept very friendly relationship with China.
We would like to thank China for trying to meet Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and asking for her welfare. Therefore, we would like to regard China as a friendly neighbour.
China might want Ming Aung Hlaing to go and we agree with that. However, it is too late for Min Aung Hlaing to do any election without Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the status quo with 2008 constitution is near impossible. We know that China does not want Burma to be a failed state. On the other hand, China needs to realise that the nation building by US in Afghanistan has failed. China won’t like to order from US and UK about what to do in Hong Kong and so do Myanmar people are.
Here is what have changed now. China initially started this by providing weapons to MNDAA and TNLA to arrest online scammers when Min Aung Hlaing ignored China. China has overestimated Myanmar’s army strength. As a result, you provided many weapons. This information is from US who handed over this to the junta as a warning.
However, the junta army simply fled rather than giving any resistance to those ethnic armies. The moral inside the junta’s army is extremely low and they know that no one supports them. In addition, their own propaganda backfires. The army in Northeastern command thinks they are facing Chinese army. So, they are easy to surrender. In addition, many PDFs are fighting for ethnic armies, and this changed the dynamic of the war. They know how to use heavy weapons, and they can read manual and learn quickly. The NUG has managed to transform some guerilla bands into a conventional army. If China knows its own revolution, the NUG has people support without mobilising the mass. The junta’s administration is like the Nationalist government in China before it collapses. The junta is facing hyperinflation, lack of trust, and no soldiers on the ground. The regime is corrupt, inefficient and has no support from Burmese people. The difference between communist party CCP during Communist revolution and the NUG is that the NUG does not need to mobilise the masses, and the masses come to the NUG. The recent success in northern Shan state is equivalent to The Huaihai Campaign of late 1949 where CCP secured east central China from Kuomintang.
Now, the junta is losing the ground very quickly and the tide is against the junta. The northern alliance and its allies also acquired more weapons as Myanmar army just fled without a fight. These weapons are now haunting the junta. So far US has not provided any weapons to the NUG. US is supporting morally but no aid comes to the NUG. However, PDF under the NUG is also gaining ground like the Pingjin Campaign of CCP.
What can I reassure about the NUG?
There are some ministers who may be close to US than China in the NUG. However, NUG prioritises Burmese interest first. They do not want Burma to end up like Ukraine. I am sure that the NUG will not be the first to provoke China.
In addition, as a person known to inner NLD CEC members, former prime ministers, ministers and advisors, I can assure that they adhere to one China policy, and they will not allow any NATO and western military bases in Burma. They see China as a partner to develop their country. They are pragmatic and very independent.
What will happen if China sides with the junta?
There is a letter from China which is very rude and underestimate Myanmar people. If China pressure the northern alliance, we can also pressure China’s interest inside Burma. It will be very difficult to protect China’s interest if China makes move against us. The NUG support base is outside Burma. Please do not underestimate Myanmar people and the NUG. US lost war in Afghanistan and Vietnam and Russia also lost war in Afghanistan. Please remember that US and Russia’s armies are better equipped than PLA of China. China itself invaded Vietnam to teach a lesson but China was humiliated by Vietnam in 1970s. China’s interference will provoke ASEAN and there will be diplomatic consequences and it will push more countries towards US.
If you provoke us, we will retaliate you. If you invade us, we will ask help from the US and the West. It will be much easier for US to help Burma by that time because it is foreign invasion. We do not want to do this, and we want peace. China needs to respect Burmese people not the junta.
In Conclusion, we want to live with China peacefully and fighting is not good for either China or Myanmar. We do not want to fight with China. If China provokes us, we have no choice but to retaliate. If Myanmar becomes a failed state due to China’s invasion, there will be groups which will host US naval bases. I hope China will make the right decision and respect Myanmar people and the NUG.
Comments