Understanding the morale of High-ranking Myanmar army officers
Myanmar army officers who are serving as colonels graduated after 1992. They enlisted in the army after the coup in 1988. If I am being honest, most young graduates who enlisted to attend the military academy which is the equivalent to West Point in Myanmar are opportunists. They enlisted because they can become a director general in civilian departments without waiting too long to become an officer. For example, it took more than twenty years for an officer in an immigration department which is equivalent to UK border agency or the homeland security department in US to become a director general. However, a military officer can become a director general in this department when they become either major or a colonel depends on their connections.
If you study a current spoke person for the junta, Major-General Zaw Min Tun or ex-presidential spoke person under Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, Major Zaw Htay, they are from the countryside with nothing and enlisted in the military and become a director general with reasonable social status. Although they are not billionaires now, their current status is a lot better than where they come from. When the civilian government was in power, they missed their oppurtinity because the civilian government banned the transfer of high ranking military personnel from the military to the civilian departments. In addition, the military spending was under strict scrutiny although it was not under the total civilian control. Therefore, they all missed their opportunities, and they did what they can to undermine the civilian government under Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. The biggest of all is the Rohingya crisis where the junta and its allies in Arakan National Party, the nationalist monks and former military officers in various civilian departments collaborated to undermine the moral authority of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Some of the army officers and cronies funded major news paper like Eleven News, Peoples Journal, Popular journal and Akonthi which is now NP news. They waged the propaganda war against the civilian government. At the same time, the civilian government was under intense criticism from the liberals and NGOs under the influence of the West.
Nearly 90% of military personnel and ex-military personnel celebrated the coup initially. The military had anticipated the demonstrations and had plans to crack down and over played their hands. However, people didn’t give up and took up arms to resist the coup. No one thought they will be successful and that it will be all over in few months.
However, the writing is on the wall. The military failed to squash any rebellion in the countryside where a majority of Burmese people live. Their weapons are very rudimentary at the time compared to what the army has. The report to the junta was that we have done clearance operations and all was fine. On the ground, they are losing their control. It is similar to what happened to the US in Vietnam and Afghanistan. The junta army posts are surrounded, and they need proper security to go out of their own camp. It is similar to the scene from the movie ‘The Covenant’ but happening in Sagaing and most part of Burma.
In the junta army is like the medieval era army. The general is not only the powerful person, but his wife can give orders to the lower ranking officers’ wife and their children. It is like absolute monarchy. In addition, they are in the caste system and higher caste belongs to one group and lower caste has to obey the orders whatever it may be. The junta’s army is based on the doctrine of fascist army in 1945 but never actually changed since then where the world around them has changed beyond recognition. The junta’s army is in the under-siege mentality since the coup. After the coup, only soldiers, privates and captains have defected to the National Unity Government. There are few majors but less than ten. Some will ask whether they can get asylum in Australia before they even consider for any defection.
In early 2023, the junta started losing some of their bases but nothing changed the map. After October 2023, everything has changed. Everyone in the junta’s army started worrying about their safety and the safety of their family members. The fall of the Northeastern command in Lashio showed that there is no-will to fight inside the army. If you study all of the battles from October 2023, the army simply didn’t fight and gave up too easily. Why? The final straw is that their commander-in-chief decided to take the position of President, and they know that there will be no end insight to the fighting because of that. He puts his officers behind the eight ball. They know people hate him and they have to fight the whole country. In addition, the junta’s propaganda war backfires. In order to raise the nationalist sentiment, the junta tried to paint the operation by three brotherhood alliance as foreign invasion from China. As a result, the junta troops simply think that China fire power is far too superior to them, and they decided not to fight. They are opportunist far and foremost and they are not prepared to give up their lives for him. There are few fighters who really fought back but most simply gave up and run away.
You may ask me why they are not surrendering on masse? As I mentioned before, these officers are in better position than when they were graduated, and they don’t want to give up their position and wealth very easily. On the other hand, they know that they are losing, and they will surrender when they meet the formidable fire power. That is why you will see why the junta’s army is giving too much resistance in Arakan, Sagaing, Kachin, Karen and Kayah (Karenni) states where they think they can win.
In conclusion, the morale among high-ranking officers inside the junta’s army is rock bottom but they will only surrender easily when we have overwhelming fire power. If your firepower is small, they will give you a good fight. They are opportunist and they know when to surrender. However, they are opportunist from day one, and they won’t easily surrender when they see there is still an opportunity to make money. This is the same for their boss Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. He knows well that he is losing ground, but he will only surrender when you show him the fire power. The firepower is the only language he and his officers understand.
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